Managing a company is the art of making the right decisions. Nowadays, their accuracy may influence the development of the whole enterprise. And the ability to quickly respond to changes is often “make or break” for a company. It determines its competitiveness and market position.
Most experts know exactly how to ensure the effectiveness of the forecasting process. However, they often do not have enough time, and the risk of making a bad decision is even greater because it concerns a closer or distant but unknown future. Unknown to most companies that base the forecasting process only on the intuition and experience of their specialists and still too often on Excel. The preparation of such forecasts is time-consuming, and their accuracy often leaves much to be desired. How can it be changed?
The solution is to select the right method – fast enough. The effectiveness of the process depends on its adjustment to the specifics of the forecasted data, the method of evaluating a given time series or the quality of collected information and the awareness that there is no one effective method. That is why it is so important to simulate different versions of forecasts, make corrections and cooperate with other departments, and then optimize the entire process. Learning lessons from the past for the future enables us to continuously improve the forecasting process, and thus achieve measurable benefits.